Physical transparency
Works from seismic energy released by historical events, making the analysis traceable to observed regional behavior.
THEK Research Institute · Earthquake Engineering · Seismic Risk
SERRA/MEL
Seismic Energy Release Risk Assessment — a physics-based framework that analyzes earthquake catalogs in the physical domain of released tectonic energy, not only in the compressed domain of magnitude.
25+
years of research
2000
Tokyo origin
2016
Pedernales validation
30
Ecuadorian cantons
Core idea
From magnitude to physical energy.
Magnitude is logarithmic. It compresses the physical reality of seismic energy. SERRA/MEL reverses that compression by transforming historical seismic catalogs into energy release histories, allowing reactivation stages, dominant seismic sources and engineering-relevant risk parameters to emerge from the region’s own record.
Scientific positioning:
SERRA/MEL does not claim to predict exact dates or epicenters. It identifies the physical state of energy accumulation and release, classifies seismogenic threat zones, and supports engineering-oriented seismic risk assessment.
Modern national product
Energy-based seismic risk mapping for Ecuador.
The updated national map presents SERRA as a modern spatial framework for visualizing where seismic energy has been concentrated across Ecuador and how that concentration can inform planning, engineering and risk management.
Why institutions use this framework
A bridge between seismology, engineering and decision-making.
Reactivation stages
Identifies periods of increased seismic energy release and distinguishes them from recharge or lower-activity phases.
Risk maps
Translates energy concentration into spatial maps useful for national, municipal and infrastructure-level planning.
SIGSA analysis
Aggregates complex fault networks into integrated seismically active systems that can be analyzed over time.
Engineering chain
Connects released energy to equivalent magnitude, attenuation laws, design acceleration and seismic design decisions.
Permanent updating
Can be updated as new catalog data become available, keeping the risk assessment aligned with current seismic behavior.
Historical validation
From the 2005 map to Pedernales 2016.
The validation study documents prospective assertions associated with the ESPOL 2005 work, including Manabí–Esmeraldas as a high-risk source zone, later corroborated by the Mw 7.8 Pedernales earthquake of April 16, 2016.
Publications
Two core SERRA papers.
Energy-Released Approach: On the Seismic Behavior Characteristics of Ecuador
The original scientific paper presented in the United States in 2000, introducing the energy-released approach that later evolved into SERRA/MEL. This work established the concepts of seismic stages, historical energy-release patterns and the 95% energy-release law.
Seismic Energy Release Risk Assessment (SERRA)
A physical energy-based framework for seismic behavior characterization, reactivation stage identification and seismic risk mapping.
Empirical Validation of SERRA/MEL
Corroboration of prospective assertions related to Ecuador’s seismic reactivation, the ESPOL 2005 map and the Pedernales 2016 earthquake.
Live beta platform
Explore the SERRA historical seismic prototype.
THEK Research Institute is testing an online historical seismic platform that demonstrates the operational direction of the framework.
Collaboration & services
Request an explanatory meeting.
For collaborations, courses, consulting projects, municipal studies, institutional partnerships or conference invitations, contact THEK Research Institute.
Email: ntndecuador@gmail.com